A dynamical adjustment perspective on extreme event attribution

Abstract. Here we demonstrate that dynamical adjustment allows a straightforward approach to extreme event attribution within conditional framework. We illustrate the potential of with two iconic events occurred in 2010: early winter European cold spell and Russian summer heat wave. use based on constructed atmospheric circulation analogues isolate various contributions these using only observational reanalysis datasets. Dynamical results confirm previous findings regarding role provide quantitative estimate dynamic thermodynamic amplitude. Furthermore, is also used identify drivers recent 1979–2018 trends maximum minimum temperature changes over western Europe Asia. The suggest significant component explaining different regions, including regions around Black Caspian seas as well central coasts Europe. Finally, offers simple complementary storyline advantage no climate model simulations are needed, making it promising candidate for fast-track any real-time system.